Hello, and welcome back to Inc.'s 1 Smart Business Story. A sports betting analytics company ranked 756 jobs by their odds of AI replacement, and the results reveal a counterintuitive pattern about who's actually safe, and who's more exposed than they realized. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are already letting people bet on AI-driven job displacement, with estimates suggesting 170 million jobs added for every 92 million lost.
In this article you’ll learn:
Which types of jobs are most at risk
The single dividing line that determines whether your role is safe or exposed
How the AI job disruption could create more opportunities than it destroys
What Are the Odds Your Job is AI Proof? This Sports Betting Analytics Company Says They’ll Show You
BY CHLOE AIELLO, REPORTER
A new tool company analyzes the likelihood that your job will be disrupted by AI. Cross your fingers and give it a look.
AI is fueling anxiety over job security—and now there’s a tool that purports to show just how at risk certain jobs really are.
Sports betting analytics company Action Network released a tool that estimates the odds of various jobs being replaced by AI. Users can search for one of 756 occupations that range from computer programmer and aerospace engineer to dancer and veterinarian. Results of the search show the “implied odds” that AI will replace the job, as well its ranking on the list and reasoning behind it. (Implied odds or implied probability is a metric used in sports betting that shows the percentage of a particular outcome in comparison to others, according to the publication Legal Sports Report.)
Computer programmers, customer service representatives, and data entry keyers fill out the top three jobs most imperiled by AI, with implied odds of 45 percent, 42 percent, and 40 percent, respectively. The tool notes that “desk-based digital work” ranks so high because the roles “revolve around structured digital tasks AI can already help perform.”
Veterinarians, by contrast, rank 194th on the list with just 6 percent implied odds of AI replacement, because “the role relies on in-person care, physical procedures, and real-world decision-making that still requires human presence,” according to the tool. The assortment of jobs at the bottom of the list that Action Network deems have zero percent implied odds of replacement include crossing guards, dental hygienists, psychologists, and bartenders.
“The real dividing line in the AI job race isn’t education level or salary. It’s whether the work happens mainly on a screen or in the real world,” Action Network analysis team wrote in a statement on the tool’s website. “Jobs built around digital information rank far higher in exposure than many physical, in-person roles people rarely think of as future-proof.”
The Action Network used research from Anthropic to build its tool, although ther or not there will be more tech laAxios reported that Anthropic was not consulted in the building of the tool. Users can’t actually place bets on Action Network, which is not a sportsbook, but instead tracks bets and analyzes odds.
The tool comes as an increasing number of people have taken to prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket to bet on the state of technology and the economy. Users are betting on Kalshi about wheyoffs in 2026 than 2025. Polymarket has open bets on everything from the 2026 unemployment rate to when the AI bubble might burst.
Percent CEO Nelson Chu told Axios these platforms are leveraging fear to build their betting markets: “Find whatever people are most afraid of, whether that’s a war breaking out or AI replacing their livelihoods, and build a betting market around it.”
It’s difficult, meanwhile, to get a realistic sense of how radical AI-related job disruption could actually be. The World Economic Forum estimates AI transformation could fuel the displacement of 92 million jobs by 2030, and add some 170 million new ones—although the new jobs won’t necessarily provide opportunities for those displaced.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs estimates as much as seven percent of the U.S. workforce could be displaced if AI is widely adopted. And Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned in a January letter of “enormous disruption” to the labor market, doubling down on his previous prediction that AI could eliminate half of all entry level white collar jobs within five years.